DraftKings PGA DFS GPP Lineup Targets & Picks – 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship
Round 2 of the Playoffs takes place at the TPC Boston. This is the start of 3 events that I think are perfect for tournaments. With 75% of the field making the cut, getting 6/6 is a must, but probably won’t be as easy as it sounds. With a lot of 6/6 lineups happening, I think you can focus more on who will be in the top 25. That’s what it’s going to take to contend in tournaments, with the high 6/6%. Here are some of the GPP plays to consider this week.
High Priced Tier
Henrik Stenson ($10,700)
Stenson withdrew after round 1 with a knee injury last week, leaving a lot of fantasy players angered and upset. The knee doesn’t seem to be a major issue and he’s in the field this week. He will be low owned due to many either too angry at him to play Stenson again, or too afraid of the knee injury reoccuring. This means he’s a high upside tournament play.
Stenson’s history at TPC Boston is great: 2nd last year, 26th in 2014, and a win in 2013. Prior to last week, he was the hottest golfer in the world after winning the British Open and winning Silver at the Olympics. With 10 top 10s in 16 made cuts worldwide this year, and a chance to get him at a lower ownership percentage than normal, Stenson makes for a great tournament play this week.
Rickie Fowler ($10,000)
It seems like the defending champion at an event is always low owned as people don’t think the repeat is possible. Add some back 9 struggles on Sunday at the last event, and I think you get a recipe of seeing Rickie be lower owned than he should be. After struggling most of the summer, it was nice to see Rickie in contention, even if he didn’t finish the way he wanted. Fowler is 5 of 6 in making cuts at the Deutsche bank, including a 23rd in 2014.
Despite some struggles, his stats are great: 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 8th in Total Strokes Gained, and 18th in Greens in Regulation. In fact, his worst strokes gained rank is 46th in Putting, which is still pretty good. I don’t mind taking the defending champion here in tournaments, as he may have figured something out last year, and maybe figured out his game last week at the Barclays.
Middle Priced Tier
Daniel Berger ($8,100)
I don’t understand Draftkings Pricing at times. Last week, Berger was 6900 and part of the Thursday AM tee time, the better tee time based on weather. He makes the cut, but makes no movement on the weekend and ends up 70th. Yet, his price rises by 1200. We know Berger has the upside needed to win a tournament: 5 Top 10s in 18 made cuts, with a win at the St. Jude Classic. But, a 70th last week and 73rd at the PGA Championship makes him a hard player to trust.
Berger finished 12th in his first appearance at the Deutsche Bank last year. He’s top 50 in all of the strokes gained categories, except around the green and is 22nd in birdie average. I don’t know what to expect from him, which is why he’s in the GPP article. But, someone with legitimate win potential at this price is something you need to consider in your tournament lineups this week.
John Senden ($7,200)
Senden is in need of a good week, as he is 80th in points coming into the Deutsche Bank Championship. Luckily for him, he has played very well at this event throughout the years. He’s made the cut every time he has played here since 2004, which includes 6 top 25 finishes (2 top 25) and his worst finish since 2006 was 33rd.
Senden has been up and down on tour as of late, only making 4 of his past 7 cuts. He has a nice stat combination, as he is 24th in Greens in Regulation and 31st in Strokes Gained Putting. I suspect the course history is why he is in the 7k range and not cheaper, but he still makes for a good value play this week at TPC Boston, a course he has excelled at over the years.
Lower Priced Tier
Ryan Palmer ($6,700)
Palmer was a popular pick a week ago due to his low price and being in the favorable Thursday AM/Friday PM tee time slot. He didn’t disappoint, carding a 13th place finish; his best since May. He is 18 of 21 in making cuts but only has 2 top 10 finishes. He’s in the GPP range due to his inconsistency at this event. The past 6 times Palmer has played here, he has 2 top 20 finishes, 2 finishes in the 60s, and 2 missed cuts.
Palmer is a great drive of the ball, ranking 7th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 12th in Driving Distance. He’s not an exciting pick, but with a great ability to make a cut and he usually carries top 25 potential, he would make for a great play if he can come close to repeating his 13th place finish a week ago.
Brendan Steele ($6,600)
Steele may not have the top 10s that we would like to see, but has been a consistent cut maker as of late. The only missed cuts were at the last 2 majors: The PGA Championship and the British Open. Since then, he was 17th at the Travelers and 22nd at the Barclays last week. He has played this event 4 times, making the cut every time.
Steele is good prior to putting, as he’s 11th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 33rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and 21st in Greens in Regulation. If he can have a week of being an average putter, he will find himself in contention. He’s safely into the BMW, but would like to get points to make the Tour Championship. I think he has Top 25 upside this week, which would make him a good value at this price.