There are certain players that I simply put on my do not draft list – barring them falling multiple rounds, thus creating value.
This week we will be featuring a series of articles based around who I like/don’t like relative to their ADP’s. Today, I take a look at five players that I won’t be drafting in 2014 re-drafts at their current ADP.
RB Arian Foster
Sure, he is just two years removed from being a consensus top 3 option at the RB position – but I just don’t see myself drafting Foster this year unless he really falls like a stone in my drafts. His current ADP among runningbacks is 11th, 19th overall – and I just see too many other safe options with upside available in those spots. When I’m locking into a player with a second round pick – I want to make sure that I am getting return on my investment. Given the troubles that he is having with his back problems, it is something that will always linger – and I just cannot confidently pull the trigger on selecting him that early.
RB C.J. Spiller
I love CJ Spiller as a RB. I think he can do it all – but there are major questionmarks surrounding him for 2014. First, the Bills offence will likely struggle to score touchdowns. I don’t have much confidence in EJ Manuel to lead them to enough drives to be a well oiled machine as an offensive unit. Second, even when they do score, Fred Jackson appears to be set for the goalline carries. Third, there is questions around the durability of Spiller – who has only averaged 205 carries per season over the last two years. With a current ADP of 35th overall, I just cannot imagine myself locking into a Spiller selection that early.
Patterson is an elite playmaker. There is no questioning his talent – and I remain extremely high on him in dynasty formats. But with a current ADP of 51st overall in redrafts – you are using a fairly early pick – and will be relying on Patterson to be a key contributor to your fantasy lineup in any redraft where you do own him. He posted 628 yards from scrimmage to go along with 7 TD’s in his rookie season – and I do expect him to improve upon these numbers in 2014. Just not enough to justify a 4th or 5th round pick to lock him up. I think he is one year away from truly breaking out.
WR Percy Harvin
Harvin is another WR with an elite skillset. He will be playing in the Seattle offence – which is focused on spreading the ball around with a balanced approach. The main issue though that I have with Harvin is his health. He has played in 10 total games over the past two seasons. With a current ADP of 52nd, it is too early for me to be rolling on the dice to count on Harvin as a key cog for any of my 2014 lineups. Afterall, we are talking about a player who has never caught 90 balls, eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards, or scored double digit TD’s in any season.
I wrote about why I am not as high as most on Watkins in my WR rankings – and nothing has really changed on that front. I love his skill set, but the environment in Buffalo is not likely to be one that Watkins will be able to flourish in right away. With an ADP of 88th OVR, you are looking at locking into Watkins in round 7 – which likely means as your WR3. Sure – he has the skills to outproduce the WR3 roster slot that you are drafting him for – but I just don’t see that happening in 2014.
source: For ADP’s, we have used the great composite rankings from www.fantasypros.com. You can find them here: http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/consensus-cheatsheets.php