NHL Daily Cheat Sheet | Wednesday, October 12 FanDuel & DraftKings NHL Hockey
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
TOR @ OTT (-128), Total: 5.5
Quick Thoughts: Ottawa actually checks in as the largest favourite of the night as of 8am this morning – which is surprising to see a night where the largest favourite is this low. The line opened at -140 for Ottawa, and has been trending down – but the Sens are still in a great spot tonight opening the season at home. The Leafs have added some young firepower up front, but they have a long way to go. This was, afterall, the worst team in hockey a year ago.
There isn’t much to like in my opinion for cash games from the Leafs. I am taking a wait and see approach with this club, waiting for many roles that are up in the air to be clear. If you are looking for a couple of intriguing value plays on FD, C Auston Matthews and C (though he isn’t actually a C) Mitch Marner are both extremely cheap and I wouldn’t expect them to stay that way for long.
Matthews is set to center the third line with fellow young-gun Micheal Nylander and Zach Hyman. The trio makes for an intriguing low owned GPP contrarian line.
Marner will be playing with W James Van Riemsdyk and C Tyler Bozak, though the fact that he is coded as a center on FD will reduce the likelihood to see a full stack of that line.
Outside of that, unless you wanted to throw a dart in with C Nazem Kadri (who may still be their best forward for the time being) – there isn’t much to like up front.
On the back-end, until further notice – the only one worth consideration is D Morgan Rielly. He should QB the PP unit and is a solid option on the back-end.
In net, Frederik Andersen makes his debut tonight as it looks like he is cleared from injury. He is a contrarian GPP play at best in my books until we get a sense as to what the play will be like from the Leafs in front of him.
G Craig Anderson is in play, as will be the case for the largest favourite on the board (on most nights). I like OTT’s chances of picking up a win tonight, and he won’t break the bank to lock him into your roster. Expect him to be fairly popular tonight.
I can’t start anywhere but with D Erik Karlsson when talking about Ottawa. He was T-4th in the NHL last season in points, and is the premier option in the game on the back-end. With +/- gone on FD, there is no one else that I really want here. Karlsson logs major minutes, takes most of the PP time (though D Deon Phaneuf will likely spell him once in a while).
Up front, the Turris-Hoffman-Stone line will be popular. They showed great chemistry a year ago, and I am happy to see them playing together to start the year. They are an affordable stack option, and may go under the radar to some newer players when they are listed as the 2nd line on some sites.
Newcomer, Derrick Brassard centers the other line in the top 6, playing between Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith. I expect this line to be the lower owned of the two in GPP’s, which makes them an intriguing play. It remains to be seen what will happen with the PP lines – it is a situation to monitor moving forward.
St. Louis Blues @ Chicago Blackhawks
STL @ CHI (-122), Total: 5
The Blues have the lowest projected total on the board, not that there is much differentiating many of the teams right now. This should be a tightly checked game – and the Blues are running into a bit of a buzzsaw here after ending the Hawks’ season last spring. With that said, there could be some opportunity here for GPP’s – they will not be highly owned, though W Vladimir Tarasenko is an elite play almost anytime he takes to the ice. You could stack him with Leherta and Perron for a nice under the radar play in GPP’s.
On the back-end, Alex Pieterangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk are both elite offensive d-men. That said, in tonight’s tough match-up, I don’t know if they are worth the spend.
G Jake Allen is a talented netminder – and he will be low owned tonight. If you are feeling bullish on STL and he manages to come through, you could find yourself in a great spot.
G Corey Crawford is one of two goalies I am considering for cash games. St. Louis has the lowest projected total on the board, and I like CHI’s chances of picking up the win. He is rock solid between the pipes and a very good option.
D Duncan Keith looks like he will be able to suit up – and he should be running the top powerplay unit. The Hawks have used 4 forwards at times on the PP1 unit, having D Brent Seabrook run the second unit from the back-end, but there have also been times where he pairs up with Keith. Either way, both of these guys are viable options in the mid-high price range.
The Hawks have re-united the line of Patrick Kane-Artem Anisimov-Artemi Panarin, and they are a great stack option tonight – as they are most nights. They were fantastic a year ago, and I see no reason for that to change. Just note that Anisimov doesn’t usually play on the top PP line.
Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa are joined by Richard Panik to round out the top 6. Panik is a fantastic punt with upside option as he is cheap on each site. Toews and Hossa are better real life hockey players vs. DFS plays – but that said, they are suitable options as well.
Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers
CGY @ EDM (-120), Total: 5.5
The Flames run everything up front through W Johnny Gaudreau and C Sean Monahan. W Michael Ferland rounds out the top line, though it remains to be seen what they do when they have the man advantage. You’ll find many play to the narriative that Gaudreau can’t play on the road. While the data does back it up, in my opinion, it is only a matter of time before this changes as the sample size gets bigger. Both him and Monahan (or a full first line stack in GPP’s) are strong options tonight against an Edmonton team that struggles defending.
Rookie Matthew Tkachuk will be playing alongside C Sam Bennett and W Troy Brouwer on the second line. They will likely be extremely low owned in GPP’s, and if you stack and they go off – you’ll be in fantastic shape.
On the back-end, D Mark Giordano is a very strong option and D T.J. Brodie is a secondary option. Giordano is the heart and soul of this team, while Brodie makes for a nice pivot. Both of them can move the puck and chip in with some production.
G Brian Elliott was fantastic last year for the Blues. Don’t be fooled by his numbers though, Calgary plays a far looser system than the Blues do. Elliott is an intriguing GPP play – but I want to see how he settles in with his new club before trusting him in other formats, despite his gaudy numbers from a year ago.
G Cam Talbot is a home favourite, and seems to not be getting much love in the DFS world for opening night (which is fair). This game has the potential to be high scoring (and is likely to be). That said, if you are looking for a low-owned favourite, playing at home – Talbot is a strong option.
Both lines for EDM will be viable tonight, though the second line is likely a GPP only scenario. C Connor McDavid will be chalky tonight, and for good reason. He is the top play up front tonight. He’s joined by W Jordan Eberle and W Milan Lucic in what will surely be a highly owned stack. Fade at your own risk, but if they do go quiet tonight, you could make a ton of money if you fade.
Due to the love for the first line, not many will be on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, and Benoit Pouliot (especially since two of them are centers). They could be a sneaky, low-moderately owned stack with a great match-up. Edmonton loves to run their top 6 into the ground as far as ice-time goes, so they will see plenty of key minutes regardless.
The only one worth any consideration on the back-end is Andrej Sekera. He is a suitable option as he runs the top PP unit on the point. That said, he isn’t an elite player as poor defence continues to haunt Edmonton.
Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks
LA @ SJ (-127), Total: 5
I expect this game to have the lowest ownership as we see two very strong clubs go head to head. The Kings have a low projected total – but for me, there isn’t a ton to like here. C Anze Kopitar is likely a dart at best, while C Jeff Carter and W Tyler Toffoli are paired up once again. I don’t know if I’d feel confident using the third option from either line to be honest.
D Drew Doughty and D Jake Muzzin are strong d-men, with the former being one of the best in the game. That said, tonight’s match-up is not an easy one – and the cost is high to roster him in a tough match-up.
G Jonathan Quick has the ability to steal a game, but again – you’ll notice a theme here, the Kings are in a tough spot. The bottom line is if you have conviction that the Kings can make some noise, you could be in for a great night. I don’t expect high ownership.
G Martin Jones will fly under the radar more than he should. He was excellent down the stretch for the Sharks, and many will shy away from this match-up at first glance. The Sharks are the second largest favourite on the board at -127 in what should be a low-scoring game.
D Brent Burns is the closest thing we have to Erik Karlsson from a fantasty perspective. He’s an elite option on both sites, though it is next to impossible to fit in Burns and Karlsson on DraftKings tonight.
Up front, Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl make up the top line, though Hertl isn’t expected to be on the top PP unit. C Logan Couture may in fact be their best forward, though he plays on an island on the second line, expected to be flanked by Joonas Donskoi and Michael Boedker. They could be an intriguing GPP stack – or you can use Couture on his own with a dart. Patrick Marleau is floating around on the third line with Joel Ward, centered by Chris Tierney. I feel it is safe to avoid this line in all formats, even though Marleau will probably see plenty of PP time.