FanDuel & DraftKings Week 3 NFL DFS Picks and Plays for GPP Tournament Contests.
FanDuel & DraftKings GPP Lineup Picks, Strategy & Advice for Week 3 NFL DFS Contests (9/24, 9/27).
Co-Written by: Marcel Ritchey & Matt Kupferle (@mkupferle)
Welcome to our GPP post! We here at Moxyball want to do our best to give you advice that could get you to the top of the rankings in those BIG tourneys every week.
We will be discussing different strategies and methods of attacking throughout the season to keep things fresh and exciting and possibly winning the big one we are all striving for. We will be following the lead that Vegas odds set out, as the house wins more than it loses.
So while playing GPPs, we should expect more losses than playing 50/50s and double ups, but will have better payouts when we do hit it big.
Our suggestion is to keep the GPP play to a minimal transaction limit to ensure minimal losses to the bankroll. In other words, don’t go crazy and refer to playing it safe in cash games with the majority of your investments.
Each week Matt and I will share our choices not only for bragging rights, but to give our readers perspectives from multiple angles.
Let’s get right into it.
Key Vegas Insights
- The biggest favorites for the week are Houston vs Tampa Bay, Arizona vs San Fransisco
- The lowest money line is San Diego vs Minnesota
- My take on these numbers are that for scoring purposes Houston has the best odds and I want to make my selections from this matchup, especially being that both teams don’t have much of a defense. Other teams I like are Denver, Atlanta and Seattle.
|QB||Brandon Weeden, Dallas||Cam Newton, Carolina|
|QB||Andy Dalton, Cincinnati||Blake Bortles, Jacksonville|
|WR||Julian Edelman, New England||Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh|
|WR||Demaryius Thomas, Denver||Allen Robinson, Jacksonville|
|RB||Joseph Randle, Dallas||Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh|
|RB||Danny Woodhead, San Diego||Dion Lewis, New England|
|TE||Travis Kelce, Kansas City||Greg Olsen, Carolina|
|TE||Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota||Crockett Gillmore, Baltimore|
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QB –Brandon Weeden is taking over for the injured Tony Romo and with the offensive line he has blocking for him I think it will be easier for him to shine brighter than when he did in Cleveland, not to mention the Cowboys have a much better program. I think they lean a little bit more on the run but with Terrance Williams, Jason Whitten and Cole Beasley (Julian Edelman Clone) I think he throws for two possibly three TD’s. He will be an interesting play, and allow for a lot of cap space. I like Weeden for his cost to points upside, especially given how all the teams that the Falcons have faced have had their way with them on the ground and through the air.
QB – Andy Dalton is next on my list and following the blowout performance that Oakland and a rookie QB gave, I love Andy with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Especially with tandem running back threat to keep the Defense honest, making this QB a great start.
WR – Demaryius Thomas facing the Lions makes for a good play especially given how Emmanuel Sanders is going to take some pressure off him. Also with Detroit not having the pass rush it used to this should allow for Peyton Manning to have more time in the pocket and this should be his biggest game so far.
WR – Julian Edelman is fast and catches everything that’s thrown his way. As the defense will be worried about Rob Gronkowski that leave Edelman uncovered because who can cover him? The defense can’t cover both well, so this should also be a field day for Tom Brady.
RB – Joseph Randle is a running back who may be leaned on a bit more this week given that Romo and Dez are injured. The value is there and I like how things line up for him in Atlanta as a high-upside but relatively low-floor RB option to rotate into your lineups.
RB – Danny Woodhead has been consistent the last two weeks making catches out of the backfield consistently and getting some touches. Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been terrible but I don’t think they can stop Phillip Rivers passing attack and the run at the same time. I like Danny over Melvin Gordon this week for his touchdown upside and cheap price.
TE – Travis Kelce is facing the Green Bay Packers and I think this will be a low scoring game, that being said I think that Travis will get his catches when the Packers stop the lone deep threat in Jeremy Maclin but may have trouble with Jamaal Charles the way they did with Russell Wilson.
TE – Kyle Rudolph it may not be sexy but he has averaged 5 receptions per game and at least 7 targets per game and has a touchdown. San Diego’s defense isn’t horrible and takes away some of Teddy Bridgewater’s deep threats away allowing more check down type throwing to the dependable Kyle. Someone a lot of people tend to over look.
QB1: Cam Newton. As you know, I always recommend going cheap at QB in tourney plays. But, for a contrarian point of view, this week I’ve got Killa Cam Newton. Cam is their ENTIRE offense right now; the WR corps is pretty bad, and what that means in Cam sprinkles in some passes and some runs together for a potential MONSTER outing. He now has 24 rushing attempts in the first two weeks which provides nice extra punch to his game.
QB2: Blake Bortles. Bortles is only $6,700 on FanDuel and is guaranteed to be down A LOT this week against the Pats. Keep in mind that in the first few weeks, the Patriots haven’t exactly been the Steel Curtain of old. Bortles racked up almost 22 points last week and in the first two weeks, they’ve allowed 48 points to opposing QBs. Look for a lot of Bortles attempts.
RB1: Le’Veon Bell. I really like Bell this week, as I think there’s going to be a decent subset of the population that takes one week off from playing him. He’s definitely not cheap at $8,800, making him the second most expensive running back on the board. But, he gets the Rams, who were shredded last week by a talented Matt Jones to the tune of 6 YPC. While Jones is a freak (how can someone 6’2″, 230 run that fast), Bell is a bit better than him.
RB2: Dion Lewis. I fully expected last week that once Lewis started fumbling, he would get the Stevan Ridley treatment and be done. But he wasn’t; he continued to play, and after the game, Belichick reiterated faith in him and his incredible work ethic. Lewis’s snap count has continued to rise, on the field for 70 plays last week. He had 13 touches for 138 yards and a TD. For $6,700, this is an excellent second running back play.
WR1: Antonio Brown. Yes, he’s incredibly expensive at $9,300. He’s also virtually uncoverable and faces a Rams secondary that’s depleted by injury and quite frankly, not that good. The only potential hiccup to the Steelers is the Rams pass rush; outside of that, he’s racked up 328 yards in two weeks. He is the best receiver in ever format, and it’s impossible for me to ignore him at this pace.
WR2: Allen Robinson. Week one was very disappointing for Robinson, and he was on everybody’s radar as a breakout candidate in 2015. Week one was only 3 points, but week two? 30.5 points. Expect the Jags to be behind in this one and continue testing a shoddy Pats secondary, and with 12 targets last week, expect at least that many this week.
TE1: Greg Olsen. This is a lot about value and price point. Jimmy Graham has to bounce back, but he’s a bit more expensive, so I’m rolling with Olsen as the best Tier One play. Although, to be fair, it’s basically GRONK and then we start talking. Olsen was targeted 14 times from Cam and I think high targets continue to roll his way.
TE2: Crockett Gillmore. Gillmore had a great Week Two, securing 5/6 targets for 88 yards and two TDs. It’s also interesting to note that when Joe Flacco finds a TE that he likes, they’re really productive. In 2010, Todd Heap had 44 receptions; in 2011, Ed Dickson had 54 receptions. In 2012, 60 receptions for Dickson. The list continues, but Gillmore tested off the charts athletically and seems to be really clicking here. I know that’s a lot of anecdotal commentary, but I’m really curious and somewhat hopeful what Gillmore can do this week.
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