Analyzing last week’s NFL DFS GPP Tournament winners on FanDuel & DraftKings (Week 7 2016)
Week 7 was a week for the chalk eaters to rejoice. The winning roster of “jtortona” in the NFL $4.25 Fantasy Football Millionaire at DraftKings and “tossboss” in the $1.5M NFL Sunday Million featured a combined seven players with an ownership rate north of 30%. As usual, though, some diamonds in the rough paved the way to GPP wins. Four of the players on the two rosters combined checked in with ownership rates south of 5% and another four fell short of the 10% ownership threshold. The two rosters had four overlapping players.
Two of the chalkiest players on the slate were shared by these two winning rosters. Jacquizz Rodgers (39.0% ownership on DK and 40.5% on FD) was an easy choice to drop into rosters of all game types. He’s been thrust into feature-back duties for the Buccaneers with Doug Martin and Charles Sims out, and the 49ers continued their ineptitude defending the run allowing the diminutive back to scamper for 154 yards rushing and add one reception nine yards. He didn’t find pay dirt, but at his cost, his yardage was plenty for returning helpful value. The other shared chalky play was A.J. Green (35.2% ownership on DK and 43% on FD). Green’s a stud, and he’s far and away the top option in Cincinnati’s passing attack. He hauled in all eight of his targets for a 8-169-1 line against the winless Browns. His ceiling is as high as any receivers in the league.
The other two shared players were far less chalky. Tight end Jack Doyle (13.9% ownership at DK and 13.4% on FD). Doyle wasn’t exactly a diamond in the rough at an ownership rate near 14% on both sites, but he was a value play who delivered a strong 9-78-1 line against the Titans. The other shared “player” was the team defense of the Eagles. Jim Schwartz is working his magic with another defense, and the Eagles are an aggressive group that tallied six sacks, one interception and three fumble recoveries. They surrendered only 10 points and as an added bonus, they recorded a touchdown return on the kickoff for the second week in a row. Their strong effort knocked the Vikings from their perch as the only undefeated team, and the 1972 Dolphins are popping champagne somewhere.
Speaking of the Dolphins, they sprung an upset against the visiting Bills thanks in large part to Jay Ajayi’s second 200-plus yard rushing effort. In all, he rushed for 214 yards and a score while adding one reception for two yards, and at a 4.1% ownership rate, was one of the wisely chosen contrarian selections on “jtortona’s” DK winning roster. It wasn’t all about sneaky swerves, though, as DeMarco Murray (41.7% ownership) and Julio Jones (41.9% ownership) had big efforts delivering 107 yards rushing and a score along with three grabs for 20 yards and a 9-174 line, respectively.
The two remaining players who rounded out “jtortona’s” winning roster were Kirk Cousins (6.8% ownership) and Michael Thomas (10.3% ownership). Cousins didn’t come away with the win in real life, but he racked up 301 yards passing, 19 yards rushing and a score on the ground and in the air against the super giving defense of the Lions. Continue to pick on the Lions defense with confidence. Thomas remains underpriced and is having a fantastic rookie season. He erupted for a 10-130 line, and the only thing missing was reaching pay dirt. He’s the total package as a receiver, and he’s tied to a high-octane offense that has to score in bunches to stay competitive while the defense surrenders oodles of points. Even when Thomas becomes priced more appropriately, his ceiling will make him a worthy GPP consideration at the least.
Doyle was just one piece of the Colts offense that fueled “tossboss’s” roster to the top of the $1.5 NFL Sunday Million. They stacked Andrew Luck (1.9% ownership, 353 yards passing and three touchdown passes with 17 yards rushing) with the aforementioned Doyle and T.Y. Hilton (8.6% ownership, 7-133-1). Hilton’s been a terror for opposing defenses, and he’s turning his plentiful target totals into big fantasy scoring outputs on a weekly basis. The Colts weren’t the only team that had a hand in “tossboss’s” GPP win, the Buccaneers did, too. Rodgers did his part as a value back, and Mike Evans (31% ownership) was some tasty chalk beating up on the 49ers for 8-96-2.
While Philip Rivers got most of the love entering the projected shootout that delivered the goods between the Chargers and the Falcons, “tossboss” zigged while others zagged and snagged Melvin Gordon (4.9% ownership) at a low ownership rate and as rewarded with 33.1 fantasy points scored via 68 yards rushing and two scores on the ground and 6-53-1 through the air. Gordon isn’t putting up strong yard per carry numbers, but he’s putting his clunker rookie season behind him and serving as a workhorse in a high-powered offense. He’s also demonstrating a nose for the end zone with 10 scores. Being touchdown dependent could lead to some lean weeks if he fails to reach paint, but the fact he’s getting the ball so often in the red zone bodes well for his upside. The final player on the FD GPP winning roster was Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos. He didn’t have a big game, but he was decent enough scoring 10 fantasy points on one field goal under 40 yards, one under 50 yards and three successful PATs.