Expert NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel & DraftKings contests – Week 7, 2016.
Our best daily fantasy NFL lineup advice, picks and plays (Week 7 DFS Slate).
Welcome to the Starting Five – NFL edition.
In this post, we highlight five players we are looking at for our rosters this week.
For last week’s article, check it out here to see how we did.
QB – Matt Ryan, ATL
It’s pretty safe to say that Matt Ryan is playing very good football these days
Four of his first 6 games in 2016 have resulted in better than 22 FanDuel points, including a 22.6 FDP outing against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense on the road (335 yards, 3 TDs). If you take away his worst game (in a very difficult matchup at Denver in week 4), he’s been pretty much excellent all season long – with his lowest output being a 19.9 point performance against the Saints, due in large part to how dominant the ground attack was in that one (he only had to throw the ball 30 times).
If you caught my Insights article earlier this season on how I like to target QBs, you’ll understand why I like Ryan this week. He averages a high number of attempts (37), is playing at home (in a dome environment) and is projected as a high-scoring favorite (29.8 points per Vegas at the moment) against a very weak defense.
There are some appealing values at the QB position this week, but I have no problem recommending a spend-up for Ryan in this spot. Him and Julio Jones are going to make for a great and dynamic tandem this week in DFS.
RB – DeMarco Murray, TEN
After watching Lamar Miller run wild on the Colts in week 6, I’m jumping on the DeMarco Murray bandwagon again this week. He continues to be a great running game option as a high-volume back in a nice matchup with a great floor/ceiling combination. He has 20+ touches in four straight games and is locked-in as the goal line workhorse as well.
He did not have a huge game in week 6 even though the matchup with Cleveland was excellent, but he still found his way to 65 yards and a TD on 21 rushes (no receptions for the first time in 2016). There are quite a few other RBs that stand out to me on the slate, but I feel Murray is a great play as a high-priced but high-end DFS option this week.
WR – Allen Hurns, JAX
Randall Cobb did us pretty well in this spot last week, and this week I’m turning to a guy that I think makes the cut as a nice lower-own (and somewhat under-the-radar option) in DFS (especially for GPPs).
I like to look for guys playing at home in positive Vegas situations who are on the field for a high percentage of snaps. Not only that, but I obviously really gravitate to the higher-target options, too (opportunities, folks… opportunities).
Hurns is only $6,000 on FD this week ($5,000 on DK) and enters week 7 having seen at least 8 targets in 3 of his last 4 games. He sees over 20% of his team’s targets and approximately 25% of the receiving yards (over the last few games), and he’s actually playing more snaps these days than guys like Emmanuel Sanders and Marvin Jones for example.
Not only are these positive factors affecting his outlook, but when we see him in a matchup against the Raiders, I expect the Jags to put up a nice number of points and for Hurns to be involved in the offense. Even if he gets you 8-10 points on FD, you could do much worse out of your WR3 spot.
There are a ton of other viable WRs for both cash game and GPP lineups in week 7, and my partners will do a great job (as always) covering them for you in the WR Cheat Sheet.
TE – Travis Kelce, KC
I’m sticking with Kelce one more time this week. He wasn’t a world-beater in week 6, but the Chiefs really didn’t need him to be. He caught all 3 of his targets for 32 yards while Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware ran all over the Raiders as KC cruised to victory.
Kelce was a victim of gameflow, which had something to do with the fact that the weather wasn’t excellent for a passing attack. He had received 7+ targets in 4 straight heading into this one, which is one of the major reasons that I was interested in having exposure to him.
Well, in week 7 he faces the Saints on home turf and has one of the highest team totals on the board at the moment (28.5 points as of October 18 at 9am EST).
I see him as a solid option if you look past Rob Gronkowski this week – but that shouldn’t keep you solely focused on him. We have a few other names (Jack Doyle in particular) that could emerge as even better options depending on how the week shakes out for guys like Dwayne Allen, for example. Keep an eye on the news throughout the week before locking Kelce in, but if the weather is good in KC and it looks like we’ll see plenty of points in this matchup, he is a great option to have exposure to.
D/ST – Denver
There is only one team defense that makes the grade through the filters I talked about in an earlier Insights column this week, and that is the Broncos.
They are the home team, have a solid team takeaway rate and are projected to keep the opposing team at a very low point total (under 17).
After watching Brock Osweiler on MNF, I have extra reason to be excited about this situation. He is incredibly mediocre at the QB position and will be in a situation where he’s going to need to air the ball out if the game rolls out as Vegas believes it will (-7.5 point spread in favor of Denver at the moment).
I’m happy to pay up for them this week, and highly recommend that you find a way to do so as well.
Best of luck in week 7, folks!